UK housing market momentum falters ahead of autumn Budget

The UK housing market is displaying clear signs of deceleration with average asking prices rising only 0.3 per cent in the four weeks to 11 October and year‑on‑year showing a decline of 0.1 per cent, according to Rightmove data.  Historically, the autumn period tends to see stronger growth (average 1.1 per cent in October) but this year the expected bounce has failed to materialise.

Economically, the slowdown raises concerns about near‑term growth prospects. The housing market contributes to consumption (through moving‑related expenditures), construction activity and broader services; a pause here could dampen aggregate demand. The timing is sensitive: the upcoming Budget (26 November) and speculative property‑tax changes may be stalling market activity. Buyers appear hesitant, suppliers abundant, and pricing power weak — an environment often consistent with a cooling economy.

Analysts highlight several structural issues: affordability remains under pressure, mortgage rates are elevated, and uncertainty over tax policy has pushed decision‑making onto the sidelines. From a policy perspective, the weak autumn surge underscores that housing will not provide a near‑term uplift to growth unless triggered by stimulus or favourable policy shifts.

For the Treasury and the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the data suggest a more challenging landscape: slower housing‑linked consumption and constrained demand may offset growth forecasts. If housing stagnation persists, the fiscal outlook may deteriorate, limiting manoeuvre room for stimulus. Monitoring will focus on actual sales, mortgage approvals, and regional performance.

In summary, the housing market’s falter ahead of the Budget constitutes a risk rather than a tailwind for the UK economy, reinforcing the urgency for credible policy levers if growth is to accelerate.