State pension rise estimated at 4.7 per cent under triple lock rules

The UK government is set to grant a 4.7 per cent increase to the state pension from April 2026 under the triple lock mechanism, after average earnings growth came through higher than inflation, according to data published today. This is expected to place additional strain on public finances.

Under the triple lock, state pensions rise each year by whichever is higher among inflation, average earnings or a fixed minimum. With inflation around 3.8 per cent and average earnings growth stronger, the earnings measure has prevailed in this case.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves reaffirmed the government’s commitment to the triple lock but acknowledged that the rise may have “significant fiscal implications” and must be considered in the broader budgetary context. Analysts estimate that the annual cost to government coffers for the 4.7 per cent rise could run into hundreds of millions of pounds depending on the number of claimants.

Other developments published today include Jaguar Land Rover extending its production shutdown through 24 September after a cyberattack disrupted its plants; UK wage growth slowing to 4.8 per cent; and unemployment standing at four‑year high of 4.7 per cent.