UK house prices to rise more slowly than expected helping first‑time buyers

First‑time home buyers in Britain are likely to find housing affordability improving over the next few years as house price growth is now expected to be slower than earlier forecasts, according to a Reuters poll published today.

The poll of property analysts, conducted between September 3 and 15, found that 92 per cent of respondents believe affordability will increase for first‑time buyers. The easing is being driven by strong wage growth and improved conditions in the mortgage market.

Marc Von Grundherr of Benham & Reeves said that “strong wage growth is helping to narrow the affordability gap, while improvements across the mortgage landscape are sparking greater buyer interest and encouraging many who had been sitting on the fence to finally make their move into homeownership.”

Mortgage borrowing costs remain elevated but have been gradually declining. Since mid‑2024, the Bank of England has cut the Bank Rate by 125 basis points. Market expectations suggest a further cut in the coming quarter.

While the outlook improves for first‑time buyers, analysts warn that government policy uncertainty may still dampen full recovery in the housing market. Regional variation is also expected: London is projected to see slower price rises compared to other parts of the UK.

The poll’s results come at a time when many potential buyers remain cautious over future interest rates, tax policies, and the broader economic outlook. Even so, the shift in sentiment and expectations offers potential relief to those struggling with affordability in recent years.